‘4F Crisis’: Jaishankar Links Conflicts, Grain Disruptions and El Niño to Food Security Risks
New Delhi, 30th September 2026: External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has warned that the world could face a major food crisis in the coming months as wars, disrupted trade routes, fertiliser shortages and extreme weather place growing pressure on global supply chains.
Speaking at the Asia Society in New York during the United Nations High-Level Week, Jaishankar said the effects of conflicts were no longer limited to the countries directly involved. Disruptions to grain shipments through the Black Sea and interruptions to fertiliser production in Russia and West Asia could affect food availability and prices well beyond the conflict zones.
He described the wider challenge as a “4F crisis” involving food, fuel, fertiliser and finance. Energy shortages, higher transport costs and capital flight are adding to the strain, particularly for developing economies that have fewer financial buffers to absorb global shocks. Jaishankar also pointed to the possibility of a super El Niño, which could further affect agricultural output and intensify pressure on food markets.
The warning came as India lowered its foodgrain production target for 2026-27 to 373.93 million tonnes, 2.63 million tonnes below the output recorded in 2025-26. The reduction was attributed to concerns over El Niño, dry conditions and the uncertain outlook for the coming rabi season.
Jaishankar’s remarks quickly drew a political response. Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Supriya Shrinate shared posts linking the minister’s warning to Gandhi’s June prediction of an “economic tsunami”. Gandhi had then argued that rising prices and weaker economic safeguards could expose India to a severe crisis.
The government’s response to the latest risks will now be closely watched as India balances food production, fertiliser availability and energy costs in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
