BJP, APP, Congress: Triangular Competition For Gujarat Elections

Gujarat, 4th November 2022: In the 2017 assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 99 seats. The Congress won 77 seats. In terms of statistics, this was the BJP’s worst performance since 1995, whereas, Congress gave the best in 32 years. The contest in the state was between these two parties, but this time the entry equation of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may change the political ground.

The Patidar agitation, the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and anti-incumbency wave challenges were present in the state during the 2017 elections. However, experts believe that the situation has changed in five years. Reportedly, the Patidar movement has lost momentum, businesses have become accustomed to GST, and the BJP has answered the anti-incumbency wave by replacing the entire cabinet in 2021.

Political expert Ghanshyam Shah says, “These issues of the last elections are missing this time.” However, he said unemployment and inflation are two fundamental challenges on which the elections can be fought.

This time, the match is expected to be triangular. In the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the Congress has remained the BJP’s main rival for nearly three decades. Many experts believe that AAP’s advantage in the election may prove to be the loss of Congress.

The Congress campaign in the state seems weak. The party has lost 16 MLAs in the last five years. At the same time, AAP, led by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, is in an aggressive role in Gujarat. Kejriwal has been visiting the state twice every month since August. During this, he tried to highlight corruption, education, health and unemployment. He also promised free electricity, education, and a monthly allowance for the unemployed youth. The party has fielded candidates on 108 seats. The names of the BJP and Congress are yet to be announced.

In 2002, the party led by Modi won 127 seats. This time, the team is trying to do better than this. Party leaders believe there are circumstances for this because AAP is not as strong yet, and Congress is getting weak. In 2017, Congress had the support of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakur and Jignesh Mevani. However, two of these sided with the BJP. Mevani’s influence is said to be confined to a section of Dalits, who constitute 6.74 per cent of Gujarat’s population.

Patel was brought into the limelight by the Patidar agitation that started in 2015. However, the movement slowed after the 2017 elections, and many Patel leaders joined the BJP. In 2020, Hardik was the working president of the Congress, but in June of this year, he decided to join the BJP.

During the last elections, Congress raised the issue of GST. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi then called it the ‘Gabbar Singh Tax. Despite this, the BJP performed well in urban business areas such as Surat and Vadodara. The position of Congress remained strong in the rural areas of the state.

Apart from this, the party tried to deal with the anti-incumbency wave by replacing the Vijay Rupani-led cabinet. There are reports that the party may cut tickets of at least 30 sitting MLAs to counter the anti-incumbency wave.

On Thursday, the commission announced the dates for the elections. Under this, voting will be held in two phases for the 182-seat assembly of the state. In the first phase, voting for 89 seats will be held on December 1. Whereas, in the second phase, 93 seats will vote on December 5. The counting of votes will take place on December 8 along with Himachal Pradesh. The hill state will go to polls on November 12.